1. Issues with the game?
    Check the Known Issues list before reporting!

    Dismiss Notice

Update Speculation thread

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by crazikyle, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. aCharmlessMan

    aCharmlessMan
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2015
    Messages:
    47
    Hi everyone, here's a few thoughts on when this highly anticipated update is gonna drop.

    Reasons to be excited:

    1. It's currently 148 days since the last update, which is the longest since 0.21>0.22 (131 days) and 0.15>0.16 (134 days)
    2. For every day that elapses we are one day closer to the update!
    3. The longer it takes means the more super mega awesome the update will be

    Reasons we might need to stay patient a bit longer:

    1. The longer it takes might just mean the more bugs they are having to fix
    2. November updates are rare, there has only been one in the last 6 years (0.11)
    3. Most of the big winter updates including the last 3 have happened in December
    0.21 (15-Dec-20)
    0.18 (09-Dec-19)
    0.15 (20-Dec-18)
    0.8 (21-Dec-16)

    As for days of the week it's been 832 days since the last major update on a Friday. However, almost a third of all major updates since 0.6 have been on Fridays. Monday is the least likely day of the week for updates at 1/10, while Tuesday and Wednesday are both 1/5. The last 4 major updates have all been on different days of the week.

    Conclusions:

    The most likely day for an update appears to be a Tuesday or Wednesday which I'd rate at around 25% chance each.
    The chances of an update this month seem low going by the dates of previous updates and a December update looks more likely.

    Estimated odds:

    Today or tomorrow: 5%
    Week beginning 29th November: 20%
    Week beginning 6th December: 25%
    Week beginning 13th December: 25%
    Week beginning 20th December: 25%
     
    • Like Like x 18
    • Agree Agree x 5
  2. Jaime Palmer

    Jaime Palmer
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2017
    Messages:
    93
    I need someone like you in my life!...
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. esesel

    esesel
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2019
    Messages:
    582
    Nice dataset but i think your conclusions are premature. The update releasing is not a random occurrence. You approach to guessing the date should be qualitative not quantitative
     
    • Agree Agree x 5
  4. n0ckboi

    n0ckboi
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2017
    Messages:
    197
    We would make a nice collection of tin-foil hats.
     
    • Agree Agree x 7
  5. surprisinguser1

    surprisinguser1
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2020
    Messages:
    533
    I really, really, really regret turning on email notifications when I first posted in this thread. Y’all speculate on nothing, which is I guess the definition of speculation. Anyone think that a prop of Tdev’s toilet will be in this update?
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  6. esesel

    esesel
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2019
    Messages:
    582
    So you get a few hundred emails a dayXD
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
  7. P_enta

    P_enta
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2020
    Messages:
    3,026
    are you single
     
    • Like Like x 5
  8. McBeamer94

    McBeamer94
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2019
    Messages:
    1,187
    How's this relevant to what he says?
     
    • Agree Agree x 9
  9. Jaime Palmer

    Jaime Palmer
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2017
    Messages:
    93
    I think it was a joke. You know about sense of humor and so on?

    - Let's speculate. What about career mode?, Anybody thinks it may be possible on next update?
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  10. Dönerfreak

    Dönerfreak
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2017
    Messages:
    89
    I bet its coming early next week. :D
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. esesel

    esesel
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2019
    Messages:
    582
    As much as I want this Update right now, id prefer if we got the Changelog/Blogpost first and the Update a week later, makes it feels like reading the Handbook of a new game;)
    Im not into edging btw
     
    • Like Like x 2
  12. P_enta

    P_enta
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2020
    Messages:
    3,026
    but it’s the best part
    --- Post updated ---
    the joke is that he explained it really well and people are attracted to intelligence.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  13. McBeamer94

    McBeamer94
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2019
    Messages:
    1,187
    I guess not everyone has the same sense of humor and/or the same stimuli.

    Anyway, I think Career Mode is impossible to be implemented right now because the UI has to be improved before that.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. P_enta

    P_enta
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2020
    Messages:
    3,026
    Career mode has been coming soon for a decade, it’s never going to happen
     
    • Like Like x 1
  15. NicOz

    NicOz
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2019
    Messages:
    92
    Happy Birthday
     
    • Like Like x 6
  16. FordKing

    FordKing
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,618
    It might
    When we all are dead
     
    • Agree Agree x 5
  17. NicOz

    NicOz
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2019
    Messages:
    92
    Third week in a row :(
     
  18. hesnik1012

    hesnik1012
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2016
    Messages:
    40
    Happy cake day

    edit: how tf did i manage to quote the wrong post twice?
     
    #35438 hesnik1012, Nov 25, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
    • Like Like x 1
  19. FordKing

    FordKing
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,618
    Lets hope it happens next week
     
    • Agree Agree x 5
    • Like Like x 1
  20. SNFriedM14

    SNFriedM14
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2021
    Messages:
    451
    So I was watching some old beamng youtube videos and came up with an idea. We can pretty safely assume there’s some map update in the next update. So, what if we’re all wrong with our theories on the map? What if, instead of a new map or current map remastered, what if we see Dry Rock Island is reimplemented? Just a theory with no evidence, but it’s possible.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice