Update Speculation thread

Hi everyone, here's a few thoughts on when this highly anticipated update is gonna drop.

Reasons to be excited:

1. It's currently 148 days since the last update, which is the longest since 0.21>0.22 (131 days) and 0.15>0.16 (134 days)
2. For every day that elapses we are one day closer to the update!
3. The longer it takes means the more super mega awesome the update will be

Reasons we might need to stay patient a bit longer:

1. The longer it takes might just mean the more bugs they are having to fix
2. November updates are rare, there has only been one in the last 6 years (0.11)
3. Most of the big winter updates including the last 3 have happened in December
0.21 (15-Dec-20)
0.18 (09-Dec-19)
0.15 (20-Dec-18)
0.8 (21-Dec-16)

As for days of the week it's been 832 days since the last major update on a Friday. However, almost a third of all major updates since 0.6 have been on Fridays. Monday is the least likely day of the week for updates at 1/10, while Tuesday and Wednesday are both 1/5. The last 4 major updates have all been on different days of the week.

Conclusions:

The most likely day for an update appears to be a Tuesday or Wednesday which I'd rate at around 25% chance each.
The chances of an update this month seem low going by the dates of previous updates and a December update looks more likely.

Estimated odds:

Today or tomorrow: 5%
Week beginning 29th November: 20%
Week beginning 6th December: 25%
Week beginning 13th December: 25%
Week beginning 20th December: 25%

 

I need someone like you in my life!...

 

Nice dataset but i think your conclusions are premature. The update releasing is not a random occurrence. You approach to guessing the date should be qualitative not quantitative

 

We would make a nice collection of tin-foil hats.

 

I really, really, really regret turning on email notifications when I first posted in this thread. Y’all speculate on nothing, which is I guess the definition of speculation. Anyone think that a prop of Tdev’s toilet will be in this update?

 

So you get a few hundred emails a dayXD

 

are you single

 

How's this relevant to what he says?

 

I think it was a joke. You know about sense of humor and so on?

- Let's speculate. What about career mode?, Anybody thinks it may be possible on next update?

 

I bet its coming early next week.

 

As much as I want this Update right now, id prefer if we got the Changelog/Blogpost first and the Update a week later, makes it feels like reading the Handbook of a new game

Spoiler: Irrelevant

Im not into edging btw

 

Spoiler: Irrelevant

but it’s the best part

--- Post updated ---

the joke is that he explained it really well and people are attracted to intelligence.

 

I guess not everyone has the same sense of humor and/or the same stimuli.

Anyway, I think Career Mode is impossible to be implemented right now because the UI has to be improved before that.

 

Career mode has been coming soon for a decade, it’s never going to happen

 

Happy Birthday

 

It might
When we all are dead

 

Third week in a row

 

Happy cake day

edit: how tf did i manage to quote the wrong post twice?

 

Lets hope it happens next week

 

So I was watching some old beamng youtube videos and came up with an idea. We can pretty safely assume there’s some map update in the next update. So, what if we’re all wrong with our theories on the map? What if, instead of a new map or current map remastered, what if we see Dry Rock Island is reimplemented? Just a theory with no evidence, but it’s possible.